A Vision for a Better Future

November Light - French Azilum, PA
Brian Keeler Studio, www.briankeeler.com

In a March 2023 report, the IPCC stresses that humanity still has a chance, to prevent the worst of climate change ’s future harms. But doing so requires quickly slashing nearly two-thirds of carbon pollution by 2035.  The United Nations chief called for an end to new fossil fuel exploration.

https://apnews.com/article/un-climate-change-report-ipcc-guterres-science-30d8451c0f3fb7b8a857e3ed4fd01172

The available carbon budget to avoid irreversible and runaway temperatures is very small. 
https://ourworldindata.org/how-much-co2-can-the-world-emit-while-keeping-warming-below-15c-and-2c

LNG export boom runs up against climate goals. The net-zero-by-2050 goal is intended to keep overall climate warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, the threshold scientists say we need to stay below to avert catastrophic climate change. No new natural gas fields are needed in the NZE (net-zero emissions scenario) beyond those already under development. Also not needed are many of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) liquefaction facilities currently under construction or at the planning stage. Net zero by 2050, published May 2021. https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050

COP28 agreement signals reductions in fossil fuels. While low on specifics, and with concessions to oil and gas industry, COP28, which concluded in December 2023, was historic in its acknowledgement of the science that indicates global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, to limit global warming to 1.5°C. In the short-term, Parties are encouraged to come forward with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with the 1.5°C limit in their next round of climate action plans (known as nationally determined contributions) by 2025. https://unfccc.int/news/cop28-agreement-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era

Global trade in LNG is undermining efforts to contain global warming. More than 250 environmental and community groups called on U.S. President Joe Biden's administration in an open letter to stop permitting LNG facilities to avoid  'climate chaos.' https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/green-groups-cop28-demand-us-halt-support-lng-2023-12-08/

Only 20 countries, led overwhelmingly by the United States, could be responsible for nearly 90 percent of the carbon-dioxide (CO2) pollution threatened by new oil and gas fields and fracking wells planned between 2023 and 2050. Planet Wreckers: How Countries’ Oil And Gas Extraction Plans Risk Locking In Climate Chaos https://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2023/09/OCI-Planet-Wreckers-Report.pdf

Senator Jeffrey Merkley letter to Secretary Kerry: Don’t greenwash liquefied methane gas exports. Nov. 29, 2023. Full text of the letter: https://www.merkley.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23.11.29-LNG-and-COP-letter.pdf

United States’ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) fails to reduce fossil fuel production https://priceofoil.org/2023/11/20/fossil-fuel-fail/

CNN poll: Most US adults say humanity bears a great deal of responsibility to try to reduce climate change but believe the US and Chinese governments and the energy industry are all doing too little to fix the problem.  https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/08/politics/cnn-poll-climate-change/index.html

LNG is not a “transitional fuel” away from coal in the effort to reduce greenhouse gasses.  Once the entire lifecyle of the LNG is considered (fracking, storage, pipelines, compressors, LNG production, transloading, shipping, offloading, regassification, pipeline transportation to power plant, thermal power production) it’s carbon footprint is either minimally lower than coal or up to 200% higher.

Robert Howarth, a professor of ecology and environmental biology at Cornell University, studied the entire “lifecycle” of LNG and concludes in a paper released to journalists this week that U.S. exports of fracked gas produce between 24 percent and 274 percent more greenhouse gas emissions than burning coal. Howarth said he used relatively conservative but independent emissions estimates in his calculations, while federal regulators rely on data provided by fossil gas companies to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). https://www.research.howarthlab.org/publications/Howarth_LNG_assessment_preprint_archived_2023-1103.pdf

The lifecycle emissions of LNG production, transportation, and use have been underestimated.
https://www.delawareriverkeeper.org/press-release-greenhouse-gas-emissions-proposed-gibbstown-wyalusing-lng-export-project-analyzed-2023
https://ieefa.org/resources/gross-under-reporting-fugitive-methane-emissions-has-big-implications-industry

Oil and natural gas operations are the nation’s largest industrial source of methane, a climate “super pollutant” that is many times more potent than carbon dioxide and is responsible for approximately one third of the warming from greenhouse gases occurring today. https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/biden-harris-administration-finalizes-standards-slash-methane-pollution-combat-climate

When considering methane leakage, gas-fired power is on par with coal-fired power in terms of greenhouse gas impact on the environment.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/13/climate/natural-gas-leaks-coal-climate-change.html
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ace3db